Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 08/07, 14:00
Prediction: Daniel Rincon vs Sebastian Ofner
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Daniel Rincon; the market gives 78% to Sebastian Ofner (odds 1.20).
Recent form leaves Daniel Rincon with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Sebastian Ofner has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Rincon 1551 · Sebastian Ofner 1537
| Daniel Rincon | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Sebastian Ofner dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 48.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Daniel Rincon | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.6 | 13.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 73% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Rincon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 11/06 | Dali Blanch Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/05 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Luciano Darderi French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 16/05 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Rincon vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 65% to Sebastian Ofner, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.