Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Raul Brancaccio
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Andrea Pellegrino; the market gives 71% to Andrea Pellegrino (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Andrea Pellegrino sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Raul Brancaccio arrives on a 3-7 run.
| Andrea Pellegrino | Raul Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Pellegrino (rating 1554 vs 1463).
- Andrea Pellegrino dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Andrea Pellegrino is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Andrea Pellegrino 2–1 Raul Brancaccio (3).
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Raul Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-12 | 11.4-13.7 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 33.3% |
H2H · Andrea Pellegrino 2 – 1 Raul Brancaccio (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrea Pellegrino 2–1 Raul Brancaccio
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/24 Challenger Valencia | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/05/23 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 08/10/21 Challenger Napoli | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 21/05 | Marco Cecchinato French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Lloyd Harris French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Raul Brancaccio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Arthur Gea Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 18/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Raul Brancaccio?
Our model gives 67% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.