Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gianluca Carlini vs Yanki Erel
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Yanki Erel; the market gives 87% to Yanki Erel (odds 1.08).
Recent form leaves Gianluca Carlini with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Yanki Erel has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
73%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gianluca Carlini 1555 · Yanki Erel 1594
| Gianluca Carlini | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Gianluca Carlini dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 41.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Gianluca Carlini | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-7.9 | 12.5-8.1 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 61.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gianluca Carlini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Matt Ponchet M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Rigele Te M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Isaac Becroft M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Francisco Gay M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Matthew Upton UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Maceo Simpson UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/07 | Filip Soderqvist UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jonathan Baron UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Enrique Bogo UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Yanki Erel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Maksim Shin M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kevin Edengren M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Ids Waterbolk M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Semen Pankin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gianluca Carlini vs Yanki Erel?
Our model gives 73% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.