Tennis · M25 Bastia-Lucciana · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Alejandro Arcila vs Rodrigo Alujas
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Alejandro Arcila; the market gives 66% to Alejandro Arcila (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Alejandro Arcila sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Rodrigo Alujas arrives on a 4-6 run.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Arcila 1522 · Rodrigo Alujas 1487
| Alejandro Arcila | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Rodrigo Alujas makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Alejandro Arcila | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.9 | 8.8-10.9 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Arcila
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Lisandru Rodriguez M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Joan Torres Espinosa M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 09/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 07/11 | Glib Sekachov UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/11 | Matthias Uwe Kask UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/11 | Kahven Singh UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 05/11 | Roi Ginat UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Bautista Durrels Rojo UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/09 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Jacob Brumm Challenger Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Rodrigo Alujas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 28/06 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Tom Zeuch M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Hugo Cardinaud M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/04 | Jerry Roddick M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/04 | Alejandro Hayen M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 21/04 | Rodolfo Jauregui Sainz De Rozas M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/04 | Marc Polmans Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/04 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Arcila vs Rodrigo Alujas?
Our model gives 61% to Alejandro Arcila, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.