Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Hugo Dellien
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Andrea Guerrieri; the market gives 58% to Hugo Dellien (odds 1.61).
Over their last 10 matches, Andrea Guerrieri sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Hugo Dellien arrives on a 7-3 run.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1532 · Hugo Dellien 1528
| Andrea Guerrieri | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hugo Dellien dominates on serve: 11.2 aces and 46.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.2 | 11.4-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 37.8% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | David Goffin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 21/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Hugo Dellien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 20/05 | Matej Dodig French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Sean Cuenin French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/05 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 12/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Hugo Dellien?
Our model gives 54% to Hugo Dellien, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.