Tennis · Challenger Liege · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Emilien Demanet vs Lorenzo Giustino
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Emilien Demanet; the market gives 61% to Lorenzo Giustino (odds 1.53).
On recent form, Emilien Demanet is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lorenzo Giustino 5-5 over theirs.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emilien Demanet 1547 · Lorenzo Giustino 1505
| Emilien Demanet | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emilien Demanet (rating 1547 vs 1505).
- Note: Lorenzo Giustino makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Emilien Demanet | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.7 | 11.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 61.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emilien Demanet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Yannik Kelm M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Adan Freire Da Silva M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Jack Loge M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Harold Huens M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Romeo M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Raphael Perot M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emilien Demanet vs Lorenzo Giustino?
Our model gives 53% to Lorenzo Giustino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.