Tennis · M25 Bastia-Lucciana · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Vulpitta vs Nicolo Toffanin
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Gabriele Vulpitta; the market gives 69% to Gabriele Vulpitta (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Gabriele Vulpitta sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Nicolo Toffanin arrives on a 4-6 run.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Vulpitta 1557 · Nicolo Toffanin 1480
| Gabriele Vulpitta | Nicolo Toffanin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Vulpitta (rating 1557 vs 1480).
- Gabriele Vulpitta is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Gabriele Vulpitta | Nicolo Toffanin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-6.9 | 9.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 56.8% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Vulpitta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Heremana Courte M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/07 | Miguel Simao M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 03/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-8 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Kroslak M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Ryuki Matsuda M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Yassine Smiej M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Balthazar Huss M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/01 | Naresh Bharathy UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 12/11 | Stijn Paardekooper M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Aleksandr Kalinin UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Nicolo Toffanin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Facundo Yunis M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Riccardo Di Vita M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/06 | Duje Ajdukovic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Andrej Blagojevic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 02/06 | Niklas Schell M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Alexander Weis M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Lasse Zajc Gajsek M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Vulpitta vs Nicolo Toffanin?
Our model gives 65% to Gabriele Vulpitta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.