Tennis · M25 Bastia-Lucciana · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Florent Bax vs Justin Lenders
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Justin Lenders; the market gives 89% to Florent Bax (odds 1.05).
Recent form leaves Florent Bax with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Justin Lenders has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Florent Bax 1473 · Justin Lenders 1480
| Florent Bax | Justin Lenders | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Florent Bax | Justin Lenders | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12 | 8.2-10.7 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 54.8% |
| Break % | 25.6% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Florent Bax
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Chris Rodesch Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/05 | Gonzalo Bueno French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 09/05 | Franco Ribero Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/05 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/05 | Younes Lalami Laaroussi Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Adrian Arcon Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/05 | Niels Visker Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Justin Lenders
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Paul Theate M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Timeo Trufelli M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Felix Romeo M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Axel Huysmans M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Gian Gruenig M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Liam Branger M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Hamish Stewart M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 11/02 | Thomas Faurel M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Thomas George Brun M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/02 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Florent Bax vs Justin Lenders?
Our model gives 71% to Florent Bax, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.