Tennis · M25 The Hague · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Dax Donders vs Yannik Kelm
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 72% to Yannik Kelm; the market gives 81% to Yannik Kelm (odds 1.14).
On recent form, Dax Donders is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Yannik Kelm 9-1 over theirs.
77%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dax Donders 1472 · Yannik Kelm 1636
| Dax Donders | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yannik Kelm (rating 1472 vs 1636).
- Yannik Kelm is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Dax Donders | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-11.2 | 12.7-7.6 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 49.8% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dax Donders
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Sep De Visser M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 10-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Max Van Nunen M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Sydney Zick M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 30/04 | Adrian Oetzbach M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Maik Steiner M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/04 | Niklas Guttau M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-6 | W |
| 17/03 | Vladan Tadic M15 Rovinj · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/11 | Jarno Jans M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Maik Steiner ITF M15 Haren · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Yannik Kelm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Jannik Opitz M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Mika Petkovic M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Emilien Demanet M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Niklas Schell M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lenn Luemkemann M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Piet Steveker M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dax Donders vs Yannik Kelm?
Our model gives 77% to Yannik Kelm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.