Tennis · W50 Columbus · 08/07, 16:00
Prediction: Monika Ekstrand vs Jia-Jing Lu
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Monika Ekstrand; the market gives 51% to Monika Ekstrand (odds 1.80).
Over their last 10 matches, Monika Ekstrand sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Jia-Jing Lu arrives on a 2-8 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monika Ekstrand 1563 · Jia-Jing Lu 1480
| Monika Ekstrand | Jia-Jing Lu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monika Ekstrand (rating 1563 vs 1480).
- Monika Ekstrand is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Monika Ekstrand makes many double faults (5.3/match).
- Note: Jia-Jing Lu makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Monika Ekstrand | Jia-Jing Lu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.9 | 10.2-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 51.5% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monika Ekstrand
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Ariana Arseneault W35 Rome |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Alina Shcherbinina W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Theadora Rabman W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Bianca Molnar W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Tia Messerli W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 11/06 | Tia Messerli W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Simone Kay W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jia-Jing Lu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Chenting Zhu W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Wushuang Zheng W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 02/06 | Jiaqi Wang W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Han Shi W35 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Dayeon Back W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Naho Sato W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Ya-Yi Yang W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/05 | Zhuoxuan Bai WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 29/04 | Varvara Panshina WTA Huzhou · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Xiaodi You WTA Huzhou · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monika Ekstrand vs Jia-Jing Lu?
Our model gives 56% to Monika Ekstrand, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.