Tennis · Challenger Liege · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Miguel Damas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Gilles Arnaud Bailly; the market gives 65% to Gilles Arnaud Bailly (odds 1.44).
On recent form, Miguel Damas is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Gilles Arnaud Bailly 6-4 over theirs.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Damas 1425 · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 1493
| Miguel Damas | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gilles Arnaud Bailly (rating 1425 vs 1493).
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Miguel Damas | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.6 | 11.2-11.4 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 66% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Damas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Harold Huens Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 25/05 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/05 | James Duckworth ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/06 | Pol Martin Tiffon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Marco Furlanetto M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Damas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly?
Our model gives 62% to Gilles Arnaud Bailly, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.