Tennis · Challenger Liege · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Leo Raquillet vs Lorenzo Giustino
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Leo Raquillet; the market gives 75% to Lorenzo Giustino (odds 1.25).
Over their last 10 matches, Leo Raquillet sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lorenzo Giustino arrives on a 5-5 run.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leo Raquillet 1512 · Lorenzo Giustino 1487
| Leo Raquillet | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Lorenzo Giustino makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Leo Raquillet | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.9 | 11.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 1 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 59.6% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 59% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leo Raquillet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Franco Ribero Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Tomohiro Masabayashi Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 21/05 | Conor Gannon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Ibrahim Snoussi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/05 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/05 | Conor Gannon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Marko Topo Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leo Raquillet vs Lorenzo Giustino?
Our model gives 62% to Lorenzo Giustino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.