Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 07/07, 12:20
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Gonzalo Villanueva; the market gives 65% to Maxim Mrva (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Maxim Mrva with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Gonzalo Villanueva has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1536 · Gonzalo Villanueva 1589
| Maxim Mrva | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Villanueva (rating 1536 vs 1589).
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.8 | 13-10.7 |
| Aces | 2 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Jan Sadzik Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Jozef Kovalik Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Villalon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model gives 55% to Maxim Mrva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.