Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 07/07, 11:00
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Chepelev
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Andrey Chepelev; the market gives 75% to Hugo Gaston (odds 1.25).
Recent form leaves Hugo Gaston with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Andrey Chepelev has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1495 · Andrey Chepelev 1564
| Hugo Gaston | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1495 vs 1564).
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.6 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-14.1 | 10.6-8.5 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 57.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Lautaro Midon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Felix Gill Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Gael Monfils French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 23-17 | W |
| 19/05 | Karen Khachanov ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/05 | Ignacio Buse ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Marko Topo ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/07 | John Sperle Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Kalin Ivanovski M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Bozo Barun M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Ivan Sabanov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Mili Poljicak M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Luca Castagnola M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Andrea Brignacca M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Chepelev?
Our model gives 59% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.