Tennis · M25 Bastia-Lucciana · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Arthur Bellegy vs Rodrigo Alujas
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Arthur Bellegy; the market gives 44% to Arthur Bellegy (odds 2.10).
Recent form leaves Arthur Bellegy with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Rodrigo Alujas has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Bellegy 1496 · Rodrigo Alujas 1452
| Arthur Bellegy | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Bellegy (rating 1496 vs 1452).
- Note: Rodrigo Alujas makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Bellegy | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.7-9.4 | 8.8-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 51.6% | 62.9% |
| Break % | 22.6% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Bellegy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02 | Vardan Manukyan M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/02 | Alexander Gschiel M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Aaron Gil Garcia ITF M25 Sarreguemines · Carpet |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg ITF M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Tomas Rengel Sierra ITF M15 Cap D'Agde · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Michele Ribecai ITF M25 Muttenz · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Justin Lenders ITF M25 Muttenz · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Evangelos Kypriotis ITF M25 Muttenz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Maxime Gruenig ITF M25 Muttenz · Clay |
1-0 | 6-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Arthur Bonnaud ITF M25 Koksijde · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Rodrigo Alujas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Tom Zeuch M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Hugo Cardinaud M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/04 | Jerry Roddick M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/04 | Alejandro Hayen M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 21/04 | Rodolfo Jauregui Sainz De Rozas M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/04 | Marc Polmans Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/04 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 31/03 | Theodore Winegar Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Bellegy vs Rodrigo Alujas?
Our model gives 50% to Arthur Bellegy, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.