Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Alvaro Jimenez vs Takuya Kumasaka
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Takuya Kumasaka; the market gives 81% to Takuya Kumasaka (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Alvaro Jimenez sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Takuya Kumasaka arrives on a 6-4 run.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alvaro Jimenez 1461 · Takuya Kumasaka 1516
| Alvaro Jimenez | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Takuya Kumasaka (rating 1461 vs 1516).
Statistics
| Alvaro Jimenez | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9-10.4 | 13.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.3% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 58.2% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alvaro Jimenez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Daniel Lara Salmeron M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/06 | David Naharro M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-1 | 9-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 31/03 | Leonid Sheyngezikht M25 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Ignasi Forcano M25 Badalona · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 18/02 | Max Alcala Gurri M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Myhalo Kovalov M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 11/02 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
Takuya Kumasaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Taiyo Yamanaka Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul M15 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 09/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/05 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alvaro Jimenez vs Takuya Kumasaka?
Our model gives 71% to Takuya Kumasaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.