Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Noah Regas vs Yanki Erel
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Yanki Erel; the market gives 94% to Yanki Erel (odds 1.01).
Recent form leaves Noah Regas with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Yanki Erel has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
81%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Noah Regas 1477 · Yanki Erel 1588
| Noah Regas | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1477 vs 1588).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Noah Regas | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.6-10.1 | 12.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 61.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Noah Regas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Artem Alekseychuk M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 8-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Manel Lazaro Juncadella M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Xavi Matas Ortega M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 01/04 | Sergi Fita Juan M25 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 31/03 | Edouard Villoslada M25 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/03 | Lucca Helguera Casado M25 Tarragona · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/03 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Badalona · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/03 | Leonid Sheyngezikht M15 Torello · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 11/02 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Almoradi · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Almoradi · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
Yanki Erel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Maksim Shin M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kevin Edengren M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Ids Waterbolk M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Semen Pankin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/05 | Daniil Sarksian M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Noah Regas vs Yanki Erel?
Our model gives 81% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.