Tennis · M25 The Hague · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Jay Clarke vs Mac Visser
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Jay Clarke; the market gives 91% to Jay Clarke (odds 1.02).
Over their last 10 matches, Jay Clarke sits at 9-1 (W-L), while Mac Visser arrives on a 2-8 run.
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Clarke 1500 · Mac Visser 1472
| Jay Clarke | Mac Visser | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jay Clarke dominates on serve: 11.2 aces and 58.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Jay Clarke | Mac Visser | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.6 | 10.4-10.3 |
| Aces | 11.2 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 58.2% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Clarke
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Daniel Masur Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 02/06 | Iannis Miletich M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 26/05 | Milos Karol Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Thomas Faurel French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Dane Sweeny French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Mac Visser
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Sydney Zick M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Twan Van Zijl M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Stijn Paardekooper M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Elias Ymer ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Oskar Jansson M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-9 | L |
| 28/05 | Max Schoenhaus M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Lasse Poertner M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Joshua Schaefer M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-7 | W |
| 30/04 | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Lenny Couturier M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Clarke vs Mac Visser?
Our model gives 74% to Jay Clarke, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.