Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 06/07, 10:00
Prediction: Daniel Lara Salmeron vs Alvaro Jimenez
See it on the live radar ↗Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Daniel Lara Salmeron; the market gives 58% to Alvaro Jimenez (odds 1.61).
Over their last 10 matches, Daniel Lara Salmeron sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Alvaro Jimenez arrives on a 4-6 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Lara Salmeron 1450 · Alvaro Jimenez 1432
| Daniel Lara Salmeron | Alvaro Jimenez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Daniel Lara Salmeron makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Lara Salmeron | Alvaro Jimenez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 0.6-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-11.9 | 8.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 59.4% | 58.7% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 59.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Lara Salmeron
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Robin Catry M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 27/05 | Kirill Mishkin M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/05 | Yauheni Bursau M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/04 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/03 | Adria Velazquez Farre M15 Torello · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/12 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez ITF M15 Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/12 | Sergio Planella Hernandez ITF M15 Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 26/11 | Leonid Sheyngezikht ITF M15 Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 02/09 | Carles Cordoba ITF M15 Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Alvaro Jimenez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Noah Lopez Cherubino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/06 | David Naharro M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-1 | 9-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 31/03 | Leonid Sheyngezikht M25 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Ignasi Forcano M25 Badalona · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 18/02 | Max Alcala Gurri M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Myhalo Kovalov M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 11/02 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 03/12 | Luka Talan Lopatic ITF M15 Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Lara Salmeron vs Alvaro Jimenez?
Our model gives 53% to Alvaro Jimenez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.