Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 06/07, 11:30
Prediction: Rigele Te vs Gianluca Carlini
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Gianluca Carlini; the market gives 72% to Rigele Te (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Rigele Te with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Gianluca Carlini has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rigele Te 1453 · Gianluca Carlini 1523
| Rigele Te | Gianluca Carlini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gianluca Carlini (rating 1453 vs 1523).
- Gianluca Carlini dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 48.4% break avg.
- Gianluca Carlini is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rigele Te | Gianluca Carlini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-11.3 | 10.1-8.7 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rigele Te
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Patrick Schoen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 17/06 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Martos · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 16/05 | Jake Delaney M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/05 | Ye Cong Mo M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Ashton Mcleod M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Jintao Lan M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/05 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/03 | Karlis Ozolins M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Gianluca Carlini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Isaac Becroft M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Francisco Gay M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Matthew Upton UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Maceo Simpson UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/07 | Filip Soderqvist UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jonathan Baron UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Enrique Bogo UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Matteo Fondriest M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rigele Te vs Gianluca Carlini?
Our model gives 58% to Rigele Te, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.