Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Vadym Ursu vs Lucas Poullain
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Vadym Ursu; the market gives 61% to Lucas Poullain (odds 1.53).
Over their last 10 matches, Vadym Ursu sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Lucas Poullain arrives on a 4-6 run.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vadym Ursu 1520 · Lucas Poullain 1451
| Vadym Ursu | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vadym Ursu (rating 1520 vs 1451).
- Vadym Ursu is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Vadym Ursu | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-8.7 | 8.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 56% |
| Break % | 33.4% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vadym Ursu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 30/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Matisse Bobichon M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Andreas Timini M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/05 | Yoan Naydenov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 23/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Semen Pankin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Raphael Perot Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Loann Massard Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/05 | Daniel Jade M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Vladyslav Orlov Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 17/05 | Michal Krajci Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/05 | Lilian Marmousez M25 Louny · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vadym Ursu vs Lucas Poullain?
Our model gives 52% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.