Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Hamish Stewart vs Pablo Aunion
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Pablo Aunion; the market gives 88% to Hamish Stewart (odds 1.06).
Recent form leaves Hamish Stewart with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Pablo Aunion has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamish Stewart 1497 · Pablo Aunion 1522
| Hamish Stewart | Pablo Aunion | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hamish Stewart dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 45.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Hamish Stewart | Pablo Aunion | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.5 | 11.2-9.8 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamish Stewart
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 20/06 | Emilio Nava ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Leandro Riedi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/06 | Oliver Crawford Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/06 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 01/06 | Elias Ymer Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Sean Hodkin Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Pablo Aunion
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-11 | L |
| 17/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Maximilian Figl M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Marc Martin Roca M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Denis Klok M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-7 | L |
| 27/05 | William Mirarchi M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Ognjen Jagrovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/05 | Max Wiskandt M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 19/05 | William Mirarchi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamish Stewart vs Pablo Aunion?
Our model gives 69% to Hamish Stewart, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.