Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 06/07, 11:00
Prediction: Andrey Chepelev vs Denis Yevseyev
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Andrey Chepelev; the market gives 61% to Andrey Chepelev (odds 1.53).
On recent form, Andrey Chepelev is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Denis Yevseyev 4-6 over theirs.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Chepelev 1538 · Denis Yevseyev 1478
| Andrey Chepelev | Denis Yevseyev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1538 vs 1478).
- Andrey Chepelev is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andrey Chepelev | Denis Yevseyev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-8 | 10.4-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 58.1% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | John Sperle Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Kalin Ivanovski M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Bozo Barun M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Ivan Sabanov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Mili Poljicak M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Luca Castagnola M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Andrea Brignacca M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Denis Yevseyev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Stefan Palosi Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 28/06 | Jan Patrick Sinescu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Sebastian Gima Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Barrientos Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Alan Wazny Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Aurel Ciocanu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 20/05 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Chepelev vs Denis Yevseyev?
Our model gives 60% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.