Tennis · M25 Bastia-Lucciana · 06/07, 12:30
Prediction: Justin Lenders vs Paul Theate
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Paul Theate; the market gives 66% to Paul Theate (odds 1.40).
Recent form leaves Justin Lenders with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Paul Theate has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Justin Lenders 1474 · Paul Theate 1480
| Justin Lenders | Paul Theate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Justin Lenders | Paul Theate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-11.3 | 8.8-9.6 |
| Aces | 2 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 55.6% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 33.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Justin Lenders
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Timeo Trufelli M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Felix Romeo M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Axel Huysmans M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Gian Gruenig M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Liam Branger M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Hamish Stewart M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 11/02 | Thomas Faurel M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Thomas George Brun M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/02 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/02 | Shaoyun Liu M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Paul Theate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Gustavo Masiero M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 22/06 | Louis Boilevin M25 Montauban · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Timeo Trufelli M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Jack Loge M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Brice Patoux M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/05 | Flavio Bocci M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/04 | Eero Vasa M25 Angers · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/03 | Leo Lagarrigue M25 Creteil · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/03 | Matisse Bobichon M15 Poitiers · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Justin Lenders vs Paul Theate?
Our model gives 59% to Paul Theate, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.