Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 06/07, 11:30
Prediction: Luca Potenza vs Pietro Orlando Fellin
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Pietro Orlando Fellin; the market gives 58% to Pietro Orlando Fellin (odds 1.61).
Recent form leaves Luca Potenza with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Pietro Orlando Fellin has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Potenza 1511 · Pietro Orlando Fellin 1603
| Luca Potenza | Pietro Orlando Fellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pietro Orlando Fellin (rating 1511 vs 1603).
Statistics
| Luca Potenza | Pietro Orlando Fellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.8 | 12.7-10.1 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 31.8% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Potenza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Elmer Moller Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matei Varbanciu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Massimo Giunta M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Gabriele Piraino M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Mae Malige M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Pietro Orlando Fellin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Johannes Ingildsen Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Veljko Krstic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Radovan Michalik M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/06 | Nico Hipfl M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Abel Forger M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Tomas Lanik M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Potenza vs Pietro Orlando Fellin?
Our model gives 60% to Pietro Orlando Fellin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.