Tennis · Challenger Liege · 06/07, 12:30
Prediction: Kai Wehnelt vs Martin Van Der Meerschen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Martin Van Der Meerschen; the market gives 56% to Kai Wehnelt (odds 1.67).
On recent form, Kai Wehnelt is 9-1 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Martin Van Der Meerschen 5-5 over theirs.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kai Wehnelt 1547 · Martin Van Der Meerschen 1588
| Kai Wehnelt | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Van Der Meerschen (rating 1547 vs 1588).
- Kai Wehnelt dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 45% break avg.
Statistics
| Kai Wehnelt | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11.3 | 12.2-9.8 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 45% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kai Wehnelt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Nicolas Ifi Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/06 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Samuele Pieri M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Dylan Dietrich M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Dominic Stephan Stricker M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Jan Kumstat M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Gian Gruenig M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Niels McDonald M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Madhwin Kamath Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/05 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/05 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Milos Mikovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/05 | Emilien Demanet M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/04 | Sander Jong M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 08/04 | Florent Bax M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/04 | Leonardo Borrelli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kai Wehnelt vs Martin Van Der Meerschen?
Our model gives 51% to Kai Wehnelt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.