Tennis · Challenger Liege · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Andres Santamarta Roig vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Andres Santamarta Roig; the market gives 49% to Andres Santamarta Roig (odds 1.91).
Recent form leaves Andres Santamarta Roig with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Gilles Arnaud Bailly has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andres Santamarta Roig 1528 · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 1448
| Andres Santamarta Roig | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andres Santamarta Roig (rating 1528 vs 1448).
- Andres Santamarta Roig is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andres Santamarta Roig | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-8.6 | 10.1-11 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andres Santamarta Roig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Philip Henning Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/11 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/11 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/11 | Stefan Palosi Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/06 | Pol Martin Tiffon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Marco Furlanetto M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andres Santamarta Roig vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly?
Our model gives 54% to Andres Santamarta Roig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.