Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Hugo Dellien
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Hugo Dellien; the market gives 59% to Hugo Dellien (odds 1.57).
On recent form, Carlo Alberto Caniato is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Hugo Dellien 7-3 over theirs.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1491 · Hugo Dellien 1518
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hugo Dellien dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 40.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.4 | 11.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 36.7% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/06 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 02/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Hugo Dellien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 20/05 | Matej Dodig French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Sean Cuenin French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/05 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 12/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/05 | Jesper De Jong ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Hugo Dellien?
Our model gives 57% to Hugo Dellien, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.