Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Oriol Roca Batalla
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Oriol Roca Batalla; the market gives 50% to Oriol Roca Batalla (odds 1.83).
Recent form leaves Andrea Guerrieri with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Oriol Roca Batalla has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1527 · Oriol Roca Batalla 1573
| Andrea Guerrieri | Oriol Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriol Roca Batalla (rating 1527 vs 1573).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Oriol Roca Batalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.9 | 11.7-8.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 37.7% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | David Goffin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 21/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/05 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Oriol Roca Batalla
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Daniel Masur Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/06 | Samuele Seghetti Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Sebastian Gima Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Mihai Razvan Marinescu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Giulio Perego Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Oriol Roca Batalla?
Our model gives 53% to Oriol Roca Batalla, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.