Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzler
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Joel Schwaerzler; the market gives 63% to Joel Schwaerzler (odds 1.50).
On recent form, Federico Bondioli is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Joel Schwaerzler 2-8 over theirs.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Bondioli 1448 · Joel Schwaerzler 1454
| Federico Bondioli | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Joel Schwaerzler makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Federico Bondioli | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-14.1 | 12.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 12.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 24.7% | 28% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Bondioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 11/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 26/05 | Karim Bennani Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/05 | Gabriele Piraino M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Clement Chidekh French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Federico Cina Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 28/04 | Jan Choinski Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 17/04 | Valentin Royer Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzler?
Our model gives 57% to Joel Schwaerzler, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.