Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Henri Squire vs Alvaro Guillen Meza
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Henri Squire; the market gives 54% to Henri Squire (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Henri Squire with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Alvaro Guillen Meza has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henri Squire 1492 · Alvaro Guillen Meza 1445
| Henri Squire | Alvaro Guillen Meza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henri Squire (rating 1492 vs 1445).
- Note: Henri Squire makes many double faults (6.1/match).
- Note: Alvaro Guillen Meza makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Henri Squire | Alvaro Guillen Meza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-10.4 | 11.7-14.7 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 36.5% | 56.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henri Squire
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Marc Polmans Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Luca Castagnola Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alvaro Guillen Meza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 11/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 19/05 | Colton Smith French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/05 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/04 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henri Squire vs Alvaro Guillen Meza?
Our model gives 55% to Henri Squire, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.