Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Sumit Nagal vs Matej Dodig
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Sumit Nagal; the market gives 58% to Sumit Nagal (odds 1.61).
On recent form, Sumit Nagal is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Matej Dodig 2-8 over theirs.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sumit Nagal 1564 · Matej Dodig 1498
| Sumit Nagal | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sumit Nagal (rating 1564 vs 1498).
- Head-to-head: Sumit Nagal 0–1 Matej Dodig (1).
Statistics
| Sumit Nagal | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.6 | 12.2-14.2 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 13.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Sumit Nagal 0 – 1 Matej Dodig (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sumit Nagal 0–1 Matej Dodig
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/25 Challenger Trieste | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sumit Nagal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/06 | Mariano Kestelboim Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/05 | Marcos Giron ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 09/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/05 | Hugo Dellien French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Yi Zhou French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/05 | August Holmgren Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/03 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Split · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 24/03 | Christian Langmo Challenger Split · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sumit Nagal vs Matej Dodig?
Our model gives 58% to Sumit Nagal, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.