Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Andrea Pellegrino vs Max Alcala Gurri
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Max Alcala Gurri; the market gives 59% to Andrea Pellegrino (odds 1.57).
On recent form, Andrea Pellegrino is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Max Alcala Gurri 7-3 over theirs.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Pellegrino 1534 · Max Alcala Gurri 1563
| Andrea Pellegrino | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Andrea Pellegrino dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 47.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Andrea Pellegrino | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12 | 12.3-9.1 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 21/05 | Marco Cecchinato French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Lloyd Harris French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 18/05 | Nicolas Moreno De Alboran French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Max Alcala Gurri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Dali Blanch Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Pellegrino vs Max Alcala Gurri?
Our model gives 53% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.