Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 06/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Lorenzo Bocchi
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Gonzalo Villanueva; the market gives 75% to Gonzalo Villanueva (odds 1.25).
Over their last 10 matches, Gonzalo Villanueva sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lorenzo Bocchi arrives on a 6-4 run.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gonzalo Villanueva 1556 · Lorenzo Bocchi 1532
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.4 | 11.9-9 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Jozef Kovalik Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Villalon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Lorenzo Bocchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Berto Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 23/06 | William Mirarchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Ruslan Tiukaev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gonzalo Villanueva vs Lorenzo Bocchi?
Our model gives 65% to Gonzalo Villanueva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.