Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 07/07, 11:00
Prediction: Niels McDonald vs Keegan Smith
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Keegan Smith; the market gives 49% to Keegan Smith (odds 1.91).
Over their last 10 matches, Niels McDonald sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Keegan Smith arrives on a 6-4 run.
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niels McDonald 1540 · Keegan Smith 1567
| Niels McDonald | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 50.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Niels McDonald | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-9.6 | 13.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Kai Wehnelt M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Bolt Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niels McDonald vs Keegan Smith?
Our model gives 51% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.