Tennis · W15 San Diego · 05/07, 19:00
Prediction: Kate Fakih vs Alina Shcherbinina
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Alina Shcherbinina; the market gives 78% to Alina Shcherbinina (odds 1.20).
Over their last 10 matches, Kate Fakih sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Alina Shcherbinina arrives on a 9-1 run.
72%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kate Fakih 1531 · Alina Shcherbinina 1627
| Kate Fakih | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Shcherbinina (rating 1531 vs 1627).
- Alina Shcherbinina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Kate Fakih makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Alina Shcherbinina makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Kate Fakih | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.8 | 1.8-0.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-8.6 | 11.5-5.9 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.8% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 51.2% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kate Fakih
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Annabelle Xu W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Maria Aytoyan W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Kelly Keller W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Brandelyn Fulgenzi W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Stefania Rogozinska-Dzik W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 04/06 | Ava Hrastar W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Lily Taylor W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Kenzie Nguyen W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Francesca Pace ITF W35 Bakersfield · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexis Nguyen ITF W35 Bakersfield · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Alina Shcherbinina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Salma Ewing W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Jo Yee Chan W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Kayla Chung W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Raina Miae Kim W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/06 | Anastasia Grechkina UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Anya Murthy UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Midori Castillo Meza W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Isabella Marton W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kate Fakih vs Alina Shcherbinina?
Our model gives 72% to Alina Shcherbinina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.