Tennis · W15 San Diego · 04/07, 19:00
Prediction: Salma Ewing vs Alina Shcherbinina
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Alina Shcherbinina; the market gives 65% to Alina Shcherbinina (odds 1.44).
On recent form, Salma Ewing is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alina Shcherbinina 9-1 over theirs.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Salma Ewing 1549 · Alina Shcherbinina 1616
| Salma Ewing | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Shcherbinina (rating 1549 vs 1616).
- Alina Shcherbinina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Salma Ewing makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Salma Ewing | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.8-0.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.5 | 11.4-5.8 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Salma Ewing
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Anya Arora W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Angela Ho W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Simone Kay W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Alyssa Ahn W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Paola Lopez W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Lily Fairclough W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Ashton Bowers W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alina Shcherbinina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jo Yee Chan W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Kayla Chung W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Raina Miae Kim W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/06 | Anastasia Grechkina UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Anya Murthy UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Midori Castillo Meza W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Isabella Marton W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Patsy Daughters W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Salma Ewing vs Alina Shcherbinina?
Our model gives 62% to Alina Shcherbinina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.