Tennis · W15 San Diego · 03/07, 21:00
Prediction: Maria Aytoyan vs Kate Fakih
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Maria Aytoyan; the market gives 46% to Maria Aytoyan (odds 2.00).
Recent form leaves Maria Aytoyan with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Kate Fakih has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Aytoyan 1556 · Kate Fakih 1498
| Maria Aytoyan | Kate Fakih | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Aytoyan (rating 1556 vs 1498).
- Note: Kate Fakih makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Maria Aytoyan | Kate Fakih | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.5 | 9.2-8.9 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 62.9% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Aytoyan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Alexandra Vagramov W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Yilin Chen W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Claire Hill W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Caroline Driscoll W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 11/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-9 | W |
| 10/06 | Sophie Suh W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Elvira Juravliova W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Kate Fakih
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kelly Keller W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Brandelyn Fulgenzi W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Stefania Rogozinska-Dzik W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 04/06 | Ava Hrastar W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Lily Taylor W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Kenzie Nguyen W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Francesca Pace ITF W35 Bakersfield · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexis Nguyen ITF W35 Bakersfield · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Avery Nguyen ITF W35 Bakersfield · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Madison Sieg ITF W35 Redding · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Aytoyan vs Kate Fakih?
Our model gives 52% to Maria Aytoyan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.