Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 13:00
Prediction: Johannes Ingildsen vs Pietro Orlando Fellin
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Pietro Orlando Fellin; the market gives 69% to Pietro Orlando Fellin (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Johannes Ingildsen sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Pietro Orlando Fellin arrives on a 7-3 run.
68%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Johannes Ingildsen 1457 · Pietro Orlando Fellin 1583
| Johannes Ingildsen | Pietro Orlando Fellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pietro Orlando Fellin (rating 1457 vs 1583).
- Pietro Orlando Fellin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Johannes Ingildsen | Pietro Orlando Fellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.3 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-9.6 | 12.9-11 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 58.8% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Johannes Ingildsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Savannah · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Christian Langmo Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/03 | Johan Nikles Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/03 | Wilson Leite Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/03 | Pedro Andre De Almeida Santos Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 17/03 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/03 | Victor Braga Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/11 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/11 | Rafael Tosetto Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Pietro Orlando Fellin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Veljko Krstic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Radovan Michalik M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/06 | Nico Hipfl M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Abel Forger M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Tomas Lanik M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Johannes Ingildsen vs Pietro Orlando Fellin?
Our model gives 68% to Pietro Orlando Fellin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.