Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 14:30
Prediction: Luca Potenza vs Lorenzo Angelini
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lorenzo Angelini; the market gives 54% to Lorenzo Angelini (odds 1.73).
On recent form, Luca Potenza is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lorenzo Angelini 6-4 over theirs.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Potenza 1502 · Lorenzo Angelini 1576
| Luca Potenza | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Angelini (rating 1502 vs 1576).
Statistics
| Luca Potenza | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.9 | 9.6-7.1 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 63.5% |
| Break % | 32.5% | 56.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Potenza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Elmer Moller Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matei Varbanciu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Massimo Giunta M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Gabriele Piraino M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Mae Malige M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Sebastiano Cocola M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-1 | W |
| 03/07 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Henry Best M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Dali Blanch Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 15/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Louis Dussin Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Potenza vs Lorenzo Angelini?
Our model gives 57% to Lorenzo Angelini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.