Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 11:30
Prediction: Oleg Prihodko vs Lorenzo Rottoli
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Oleg Prihodko; the market gives 66% to Oleg Prihodko (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Oleg Prihodko sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lorenzo Rottoli arrives on a 6-4 run.
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oleg Prihodko 1525 · Lorenzo Rottoli 1485
| Oleg Prihodko | Lorenzo Rottoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oleg Prihodko (rating 1525 vs 1485).
- Head-to-head: Oleg Prihodko 1–0 Lorenzo Rottoli (1).
Statistics
| Oleg Prihodko | Lorenzo Rottoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.7 | 11.8-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 37% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Oleg Prihodko 1 – 0 Lorenzo Rottoli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oleg Prihodko 1–0 Lorenzo Rottoli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/26 Challenger Cesenatico | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oleg Prihodko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Khumoyun Sultanov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Glib Sekachov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Vid Mohar M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/06 | Petar Jovanovic Davis Cup |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Saba Purtseladze Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 11/06 | Jasin Jakupi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/06 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Michal Krajci Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Lorenzo Rottoli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Johan Nikles M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 27/06 | Yassine Dlimi M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/06 | Massimo Giunta M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Dillon Beckles M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Denis Klok M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/05 | Jan Wygona M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oleg Prihodko vs Lorenzo Rottoli?
Our model gives 62% to Oleg Prihodko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.