Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 14:30
Prediction: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Boris Arias
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Enrico Dalla Valle; the market gives 91% to Enrico Dalla Valle (odds 1.03).
Over their last 10 matches, Enrico Dalla Valle sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Boris Arias arrives on a 4-6 run.
79%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Enrico Dalla Valle 1561 · Boris Arias 1454
| Enrico Dalla Valle | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Enrico Dalla Valle (rating 1561 vs 1454).
- Enrico Dalla Valle is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Boris Arias makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Enrico Dalla Valle | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.6 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-7.4 | 8.5-11.4 |
| Aces | 4 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Enrico Dalla Valle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Nikita Belozertsev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Jakub Paul Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Flavio Bocci Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Boris Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04 | Dan Martin Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/03 | Enzo Lima Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/03 | Federico Gaston Gonzalez Benitez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/01 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Itajai · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/11 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 09/11 | Andrea Collarini Challenger Montevideo · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Lima · Clay |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 19/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Enrico Dalla Valle vs Boris Arias?
Our model gives 79% to Enrico Dalla Valle, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.