Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Jozef Kovalik
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Gonzalo Villanueva; the market gives 49% to Gonzalo Villanueva (odds 1.91).
Recent form leaves Gonzalo Villanueva with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Jozef Kovalik has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gonzalo Villanueva 1556 · Jozef Kovalik 1485
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Jozef Kovalik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Villanueva (rating 1556 vs 1485).
- Gonzalo Villanueva is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Jozef Kovalik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.1 | 11.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Villalon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jozef Kovalik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/06 | Piotr Galus M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
1-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 26/05 | Andrej Martin Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Federico Bondioli M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/12 | Ondrej Horak Czechia Extraliga |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Bad Waltersdorf · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Bad Waltersdorf · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Bad Waltersdorf · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gonzalo Villanueva vs Jozef Kovalik?
Our model gives 54% to Gonzalo Villanueva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.