Tennis · Challenger Liege · 05/07, 12:30
Prediction: Ryan Nijboer vs Maxence Bertimon
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Ryan Nijboer; the market gives 73% to Ryan Nijboer (odds 1.28).
Over their last 10 matches, Ryan Nijboer sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Maxence Bertimon arrives on a 3-7 run.
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Nijboer 1558 · Maxence Bertimon 1435
| Ryan Nijboer | Maxence Bertimon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryan Nijboer (rating 1558 vs 1435).
- Ryan Nijboer is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ryan Nijboer | Maxence Bertimon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.3 | 8.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Nijboer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jonas Forejtek M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Michiel de Krom M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Pavlos Tsitsipas M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Mikel Martinez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Marcel Zielinski M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/05 | Daniel Rincon M25 Vic |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Vic |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 12/05 | David Naharro M25 Vic |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Maxence Bertimon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Felix Balshaw M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Emilien Demanet M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/04 | Mika Petkovic M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/04 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre M25 Angers · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/03 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Zadar · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/03 | Marvin Moeller M25 Creteil · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/03 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Thionville · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/01 | Pierre Yves Bailly M25 Hazebrouck |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/01 | Remy Bertola M25 Hazebrouck |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Trey Hilderbrand Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Nijboer vs Maxence Bertimon?
Our model gives 70% to Ryan Nijboer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.