Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 05/07, 13:00
Prediction: Orlando Luz vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Alejo Sanchez Quilez; the market gives 79% to Alejo Sanchez Quilez (odds 1.17).
Recent form leaves Orlando Luz with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Alejo Sanchez Quilez has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orlando Luz 1478 · Alejo Sanchez Quilez 1523
| Orlando Luz | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejo Sanchez Quilez (rating 1478 vs 1523).
- Note: Orlando Luz makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Orlando Luz | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.9 | 10.6-9 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 28.9% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orlando Luz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/02 | Henrique Rocha ATP Santiago · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/11 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/11 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/11 | Natan Rodrigues Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/11 | Daniel V C Rebelo Challenger Florianopolis · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Collarini Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Niklas Schell Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Maximilian Neuchrist Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 15/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Alex Martinez Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/06 | Andrea Baudel Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Karim Bennani Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/05 | Michiel de Krom Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orlando Luz vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez?
Our model gives 69% to Alejo Sanchez Quilez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.