Tennis · W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Lisa Pigato vs Maria Lourdes Carle
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Maria Lourdes Carle; the market gives 54% to Lisa Pigato (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Lisa Pigato with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Maria Lourdes Carle has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lisa Pigato 1492 · Maria Lourdes Carle 1506
| Lisa Pigato | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Maria Lourdes Carle dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 54.7% break avg.
- Note: Maria Lourdes Carle makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Lisa Pigato | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.6 | 12.5-11.7 |
| Aces | 6 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 61.1% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 54.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lisa Pigato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Laima Vladson W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Noma Noha Akugue Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Darya Astakhova WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/06 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Sloane Stephens French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Aliona Falei French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/05 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Maria Lourdes Carle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Dalila Jakupovic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Valentina Steiner W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Havlickova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Anastasiia Firman W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Rebecca Sramkova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 20/05 | Maria Timofeeva French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Rebeka Masarova French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Barbora Palicova W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/05 | Mary Stoiana W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lisa Pigato vs Maria Lourdes Carle?
Our model gives 51% to Lisa Pigato, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.