Tennis · Challenger Quito · 03/07, 18:10
Prediction: Ignacio Monzon vs Samuel Heredia
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Samuel Heredia; the market gives 59% to Samuel Heredia (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Ignacio Monzon with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Samuel Heredia has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ignacio Monzon 1508 · Samuel Heredia 1563
| Ignacio Monzon | Samuel Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samuel Heredia (rating 1508 vs 1563).
Statistics
| Ignacio Monzon | Samuel Heredia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-10.2 | 10.8-7.7 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 56.9% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 56.6% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.1
Over 21.5: 42% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 58% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ignacio Monzon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Sebastian Gomez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Julian Cundom Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/06 | Santiago Giamichelle Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 21/05 | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Mateo Del Pino M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/05 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Samuel Heredia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Gustavo Ribeiro de Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Ezequiel Monferrer Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/06 | Juan Borba Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Julian Cundom Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/06 | Jose Gabriel Fernandez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/06 | Gustavo Ribeiro de Almeida M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 02/06 | Enzo Lima M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ignacio Monzon vs Samuel Heredia?
Our model gives 58% to Samuel Heredia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.