Tennis · Challenger Quito · 03/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alan Magadan vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Alan Magadan; the market gives 71% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Alan Magadan with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alan Magadan 1600 · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1577
| Alan Magadan | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alan Magadan | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-8 | 12.6-8.7 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 51.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1
Over 20.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alan Magadan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Hyeon Chung M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Azuma Visaya UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Kosuke Shibano UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 26/06 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 12/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alan Magadan vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida?
Our model gives 60% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.