Tennis · M15 San Diego · 02/07, 21:00
Prediction: Maxwell Exsted vs Bryce Nakashima
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Bryce Nakashima; the market gives 63% to Bryce Nakashima (odds 1.50).
Over their last 10 matches, Maxwell Exsted sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Bryce Nakashima arrives on a 5-5 run.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxwell Exsted 1510 · Bryce Nakashima 1566
| Maxwell Exsted | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bryce Nakashima (rating 1510 vs 1566).
Statistics
| Maxwell Exsted | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12 | 12.1-8.8 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 79.6% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxwell Exsted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Benjamin Berger M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Lorenzo Claverie M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Matt Kuhar M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Alexander Rozin M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Theodore Dean M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Tanishk Konduri M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Vit Kalina M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Miles Jones M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/03 | Gianluca Brunkow M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/02 | Jeffrey John Wolf M15 Naples · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Nav Dayal M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Aadarsh Tripathi M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Spencer Johnson M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Henry Wilson M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/06 | Spencer Johnson M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/06 | Ronit Karki M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Vignesh Gogineni M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Billy Suarez M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/11 | Gavin Young ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxwell Exsted vs Bryce Nakashima?
Our model gives 60% to Bryce Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.