Tennis · M15 San Diego · 02/07, 21:00
Prediction: Rafael De Alba vs Theodore Dean
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Theodore Dean; the market gives 83% to Theodore Dean (odds 1.13).
Recent form leaves Rafael De Alba with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Theodore Dean has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
70%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael De Alba 1496 · Theodore Dean 1518
| Rafael De Alba | Theodore Dean | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rafael De Alba | Theodore Dean | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-11 | 11.7-10.3 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 58% | 63% |
| Break % | 42% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael De Alba
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 11/06 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Muzammil Murtaza M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/06 | Dimitris Azoidis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Haydar Cem Gokpinar M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefan Cooper M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Dimitris Azoidis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/04 | Jerry Roddick M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Kether Naresh Gonzalez Gonzalez M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/04 | Alex Hernandez M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Theodore Dean
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Rudy Quan M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 11/06 | Vit Kalina M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 02/06 | Ozan Baris M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Spencer Johnson M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Iiro Vasa M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Tristan Stringer M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 22/02 | Liam Krall UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/02 | Benjamin Berger UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/02 | Wilhelm Saiga UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael De Alba vs Theodore Dean?
Our model gives 70% to Theodore Dean, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.